{"id":2750,"date":"2026-05-09T12:44:49","date_gmt":"2026-05-09T12:44:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/a.slayhot.com\/?p=2750"},"modified":"2026-05-09T12:44:49","modified_gmt":"2026-05-09T12:44:49","slug":"thi-truong-dong-tinh-luyen-va-hop-kim-tho-toan-cau-bien-dong-manh-do-nguon-cung-that-chat","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/a.slayhot.com\/?p=2750","title":{"rendered":"Th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u0110\u1ed3ng tinh luy\u1ec7n v\u00e0 H\u1ee3p kim th\u00f4 to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng m\u1ea1nh do ngu\u1ed3n cung th\u1eaft ch\u1eb7t"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2>B\u00e1o C\u00e1o Th\u1ecb Tr\u01b0\u1eddng Chuy\u00ean S\u00e2u: \u0110\u1ed3ng Tinh Luy\u1ec7n v\u00e0 H\u1ee3p Kim \u0110\u1ed3ng Ch\u01b0a Gia C\u00f4ng<\/h2>\n<h3>1. T\u1ed5ng Quan v\u00e0 \u0110\u1ed9ng L\u1ef1c C\u00f4ng Ngh\u1ec7<\/h3>\n<p>Th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u1ed3ng tinh luy\u1ec7n v\u00e0 h\u1ee3p kim \u0111\u1ed3ng ch\u01b0a gia c\u00f4ng \u0111ang tr\u1ea3i qua giai \u0111o\u1ea1n chuy\u1ec3n \u0111\u1ed5i s\u00e2u s\u1eafc, \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y b\u1edfi c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9t ph\u00e1 c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 trong khai th\u00e1c, luy\u1ec7n kim v\u00e0 t\u00e1i ch\u1ebf. V\u1ec1 khai th\u00e1c, c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 *in-situ leaching* (khai th\u00e1c t\u1ea1i ch\u1ed7) v\u00e0 *bioleaching* (lixiviation sinh h\u1ecdc) \u0111ang \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i h\u00f3a \u0111\u1ec3 x\u1eed l\u00fd qu\u1eb7ng c\u1ea5p th\u1ea5p, gi\u1ea3m chi ph\u00ed n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng v\u00e0 t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng m\u00f4i tr\u01b0\u1eddng. Trong l\u0129nh v\u1ef1c luy\u1ec7n kim, quy tr\u00ecnh *Flash Smelting* (luy\u1ec7n ch\u1edbp nho\u00e1ng) v\u00e0 *Contimelt* \u0111\u00e3 c\u1ea3i thi\u1ec7n hi\u1ec7u su\u1ea5t thu h\u1ed3i l\u00ean tr\u00ean 98%, \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi gi\u1ea3m ph\u00e1t th\u1ea3i SO\u2082 xu\u1ed1ng d\u01b0\u1edbi ng\u01b0\u1ee1ng quy \u0111\u1ecbnh qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf. \u0110\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t, c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 *hydrometallurgy* (th\u1ee7y luy\u1ec7n) k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p v\u1edbi \u0111i\u1ec7n ph\u00e2n kh\u00f4ng h\u00f2a tan \u0111ang cho ph\u00e9p s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed3ng cathode c\u00f3 \u0111\u1ed9 tinh khi\u1ebft 99.9999% (6N), ph\u1ee5c v\u1ee5 nhu c\u1ea7u ng\u00e0y c\u00e0ng kh\u1eaft khe t\u1eeb ng\u00e0nh b\u00e1n d\u1eabn v\u00e0 si\u00eau d\u1eabn.<\/p>\n<p>V\u1ec1 h\u1ee3p kim \u0111\u1ed3ng ch\u01b0a gia c\u00f4ng, c\u00e1c c\u1ea3i ti\u1ebfn trong luy\u1ec7n h\u1ee3p kim nh\u01b0 *Cu-Cr-Zr* v\u00e0 *Cu-Ni-Si* \u0111\u00e3 n\u00e2ng cao \u0111\u1ed9 b\u1ec1n c\u01a1 h\u1ecdc v\u00e0 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng ch\u1ed1ng m\u1ecfi, \u0111\u00e1p \u1ee9ng y\u00eau c\u1ea7u c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c \u1ee9ng d\u1ee5ng \u0111i\u1ec7n \u00e1p cao v\u00e0 nhi\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ed9 kh\u1eafc nghi\u1ec7t. C\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 *additive manufacturing* (s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t b\u1ed3i \u0111\u1eafp) v\u1edbi b\u1ed9t \u0111\u1ed3ng v\u00e0 h\u1ee3p kim \u0111\u1ed3ng \u0111ang m\u1edf ra h\u01b0\u1edbng \u0111i m\u1edbi cho c\u00e1c linh ki\u1ec7n ph\u1ee9c t\u1ea1p trong ng\u00e0nh h\u00e0ng kh\u00f4ng v\u0169 tr\u1ee5 v\u00e0 y t\u1ebf.<\/p>\n<h3>2. Ph\u00e2n T\u00edch Nhu C\u1ea7u Th\u1ecb Tr\u01b0\u1eddng Theo Ng\u00e0nh<\/h3>\n<h4>2.1. N\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng t\u00e1i t\u1ea1o v\u00e0 xe \u0111i\u1ec7n (EV)<\/h4>\n<p>Nhu c\u1ea7u \u0111\u1ed3ng tinh luy\u1ec7n t\u0103ng m\u1ea1nh, d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn chi\u1ebfm 25% t\u1ed5ng ti\u00eau th\u1ee5 to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2030. M\u1ed7i xe \u0111i\u1ec7n s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng kho\u1ea3ng 80-100 kg \u0111\u1ed3ng (g\u1ea5p 4 l\u1ea7n xe \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u01a1 \u0111\u1ed1t trong). C\u00e1c d\u1ef1 \u00e1n \u0111i\u1ec7n gi\u00f3 ngo\u00e0i kh\u01a1i c\u1ea7n 8-10 t\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ed3ng\/MW, trong khi \u0111i\u1ec7n m\u1eb7t tr\u1eddi c\u1ea7n 5-6 t\u1ea5n\/MW. H\u1ee3p kim \u0111\u1ed3ng ch\u01b0a gia c\u00f4ng (\u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t l\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed3ng thau v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed3ng berili) \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u01b0a chu\u1ed9ng cho \u0111\u1ea7u n\u1ed1i, thanh c\u00e1i v\u00e0 b\u1ed9 t\u1ea3n nhi\u1ec7t trong h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng pin v\u00e0 inverter.<\/p>\n<h4>2.2. C\u01a1 s\u1edf h\u1ea1 t\u1ea7ng v\u00e0 x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng<\/h4>\n<p>Trung Qu\u1ed1c v\u00e0 \u1ea4n \u0110\u1ed9 ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c d\u1eabn d\u1eaft nhu c\u1ea7u, v\u1edbi c\u00e1c d\u1ef1 \u00e1n l\u01b0\u1edbi \u0111i\u1ec7n si\u00eau cao \u00e1p (UHV) v\u00e0 \u0111\u00f4 th\u1ecb h\u00f3a. \u0110\u1ed3ng tinh luy\u1ec7n d\u1ea1ng d\u00e2y v\u00e0 thanh \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng cho h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng d\u00e2y \u0111i\u1ec7n, \u1ed1ng n\u01b0\u1edbc, v\u00e0 m\u00e1i l\u1ee3p. H\u1ee3p kim \u0111\u1ed3ng-niken (Cu-Ni) chi\u1ebfm \u01b0u th\u1ebf trong h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng \u1ed1ng d\u1eabn n\u01b0\u1edbc bi\u1ec3n v\u00e0 kh\u1eed m\u1eb7n.<\/p>\n<h4>2.3. C\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p \u0111i\u1ec7n t\u1eed v\u00e0 b\u00e1n d\u1eabn<\/h4>\n<p>\u0110\u1ed3ng c\u00f3 \u0111\u1ed9 tinh khi\u1ebft cao (6N-7N) v\u00e0 h\u1ee3p kim \u0111\u1ed3ng m\u1ecfng (Cu foil) l\u00e0 v\u1eadt li\u1ec7u kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 thay th\u1ebf trong b\u1ea3ng m\u1ea1ch in (PCB) v\u00e0 chip b\u00e1n d\u1eabn. C\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 *copper interconnects* \u0111ang thay th\u1ebf nh\u00f4m trong c\u00e1c vi x\u1eed l\u00fd th\u1ebf h\u1ec7 m\u1edbi, th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y nhu c\u1ea7u t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng 8-10%\/n\u0103m.<\/p>\n<h3>3. \u0110\u1ed9ng Th\u00e1i Th\u01b0\u01a1ng M\u1ea1i To\u00e0n C\u1ea7u<\/h3>\n<h4>3.1. Chu\u1ed7i cung \u1ee9ng v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb<\/h4>\n<p>Th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u1ed3ng tinh luy\u1ec7n v\u00e0 h\u1ee3p kim \u0111\u1ed3ng ch\u01b0a gia c\u00f4ng \u0111ang ch\u1ecbu t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng m\u1ea1nh t\u1eeb c\u0103ng th\u1eb3ng th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i M\u1ef9-Trung v\u00e0 chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111a d\u1ea1ng h\u00f3a ngu\u1ed3n cung. Chile v\u00e0 Peru chi\u1ebfm 40% s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng khai th\u00e1c to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u, nh\u01b0ng Trung Qu\u1ed1c ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t 55% c\u00f4ng su\u1ea5t luy\u1ec7n kim. C\u00e1c l\u1ec7nh c\u1ea5m xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u qu\u1eb7ng \u0111\u1ed3ng t\u1eeb Indonesia v\u00e0 Zambia bu\u1ed9c c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 nh\u00e0 m\u00e1y luy\u1ec7n trong n\u01b0\u1edbc, t\u1ea1o ra s\u1ef1 d\u1ecbch chuy\u1ec3n d\u00f2ng ch\u1ea3y th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i.<\/p>\n<h4>3.2. Ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch gi\u00e1 v\u00e0 c\u01a1 ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1<\/h4>\n<p>Gi\u00e1 \u0111\u1ed3ng LME (London Metal Exchange) v\u00e0 SHFE (Shanghai Futures Exchange) c\u00f3 \u0111\u1ed9 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng cao do \u0111\u1ea7u c\u01a1 v\u00e0 ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch t\u1ed3n kho. C\u00e1c h\u1ee3p \u0111\u1ed3ng t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai \u0111\u1ed3ng tinh luy\u1ec7n \u0111\u00e3 t\u0103ng 18% trong qu\u00fd I\/2025, ph\u1ea3n \u00e1nh lo ng\u1ea1i thi\u1ebfu h\u1ee5t ngu\u1ed3n cung t\u1eeb c\u00e1c m\u1ecf m\u1edbi. \u0110\u1ed1i v\u1edbi h\u1ee3p kim \u0111\u1ed3ng ch\u01b0a gia c\u00f4ng, gi\u00e1 th\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c neo theo \u0111\u1ed3ng cathode c\u1ed9ng v\u1edbi ph\u00ed ch\u1ebf bi\u1ebfn (premium), dao \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u1eeb 200-800 USD\/t\u1ea5n t\u00f9y lo\u1ea1i h\u1ee3p kim.<\/p>\n<h4>3.3. Xu h\u01b0\u1edbng t\u00e1i ch\u1ebf v\u00e0 kinh t\u1ebf tu\u1ea7n ho\u00e0n<\/h4>\n<p>T\u00e1i ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed3ng (\u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1ee9 c\u1ea5p) hi\u1ec7n chi\u1ebfm 32% t\u1ed5ng cung, v\u1edbi c\u00e1c trung t\u00e2m l\u1edbn t\u1ea1i ch\u00e2u \u00c2u v\u00e0 \u0110\u00f4ng Nam \u00c1. C\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 *pyrometallurgical* (h\u1ecfa luy\u1ec7n) v\u00e0 *hydrometallurgical* (th\u1ee7y luy\u1ec7n) cho ph\u00e9p thu h\u1ed3i tr\u00ean 95% \u0111\u1ed3ng t\u1eeb ph\u1ebf li\u1ec7u. C\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia nh\u01b0 Nh\u1eadt B\u1ea3n v\u00e0 \u0110\u1ee9c \u0111ang d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ea7u trong vi\u1ec7c s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t h\u1ee3p kim \u0111\u1ed3ng t\u00e1i ch\u1ebf ch\u1ea5t l\u01b0\u1ee3ng cao, gi\u1ea3m ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c v\u00e0o qu\u1eb7ng nh\u1eadp kh\u1ea9u.<\/p>\n<h3>4. Tri\u1ec3n V\u1ecdng v\u00e0 R\u1ee7i Ro Chi\u1ebfn L\u01b0\u1ee3c<\/h3>\n<h4>4.1. C\u01a1 h\u1ed9i t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng<\/h4>\n<p>&#8211; S\u1ef1 b\u00f9ng n\u1ed5 c\u1ee7a tr\u00ed tu\u1ec7 nh\u00e2n t\u1ea1o (AI) v\u00e0 trung t\u00e2m d\u1eef li\u1ec7u: M\u1ed7i trung t\u00e2m d\u1eef li\u1ec7u quy m\u00f4 l\u1edbn ti\u00eau th\u1ee5 5.000-10.000 t\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ed3ng cho h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng c\u00e1p v\u00e0 l\u00e0m m\u00e1t.<br \/>\n&#8211; Ch\u01b0\u01a1ng tr\u00ecnh chuy\u1ec3n \u0111\u1ed5i n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng xanh t\u1ea1i EU v\u00e0 M\u1ef9: \u0110\u1ea1o lu\u1eadt Gi\u1ea3m l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t (IRA) v\u00e0 Green Deal th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 v\u00e0o l\u01b0\u1edbi \u0111i\u1ec7n th\u00f4ng minh.<\/p>\n<h4>4.2. R\u1ee7i ro c\u1ea7n gi\u00e1m s\u00e1t<\/h4>\n<p>&#8211; Chi ph\u00ed n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng t\u0103ng cao: Luy\u1ec7n \u0111\u1ed3ng ti\u00eau t\u1ed1n 8-10 MWh\/t\u1ea5n, nh\u1ea1y c\u1ea3m v\u1edbi gi\u00e1 \u0111i\u1ec7n.<br \/>\n&#8211; C\u0103ng th\u1eb3ng th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i v\u00e0 thu\u1ebf quan: M\u1ef9 \u0111ang xem x\u00e9t \u00e1p thu\u1ebf nh\u1eadp kh\u1ea9u \u0111\u1ed3ng tinh luy\u1ec7n 25% t\u1eeb c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc kh\u00f4ng tu\u00e2n th\u1ee7 ti\u00eau chu\u1ea9n lao \u0111\u1ed9ng.<br \/>\n&#8211; S\u1ef1 tr\u1ed7i d\u1eady c\u1ee7a v\u1eadt li\u1ec7u thay th\u1ebf: Nh\u00f4m v\u00e0 graphene trong m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 \u1ee9ng d\u1ee5ng d\u1eabn \u0111i\u1ec7n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u00e0m gi\u1ea3m t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng nhu c\u1ea7u \u0111\u1ed3ng.<\/p>\n<h3>5. K\u1ebft Lu\u1eadn v\u00e0 Khuy\u1ebfn Ngh\u1ecb Chi\u1ebfn L\u01b0\u1ee3c<\/h3>\n<p>Th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u1ed3ng tinh luy\u1ec7n v\u00e0 h\u1ee3p kim \u0111\u1ed3ng ch\u01b0a gia c\u00f4ng \u0111ang trong giai \u0111o\u1ea1n t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng c\u1ea5u tr\u00fac, v\u1edbi nhu c\u1ea7u v\u01b0\u1ee3t cung d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn k\u00e9o d\u00e0i \u0111\u1ebfn 2028. C\u00e1c doanh nghi\u1ec7p c\u1ea7n t\u1eadp trung v\u00e0o:<br \/>\n&#8211; \u0110\u1ea7u t\u01b0 v\u00e0o c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 t\u00e1i ch\u1ebf v\u00e0 luy\u1ec7n kim xanh \u0111\u1ec3 gi\u1ea3m ph\u00e1t th\u1ea3i carbon.<br \/>\n&#8211; \u0110a d\u1ea1ng h\u00f3a ngu\u1ed3n cung qu\u1eb7ng v\u00e0 h\u1ee3p \u0111\u1ed3ng d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n v\u1edbi c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t t\u1ea1i ch\u00e2u Phi v\u00e0 M\u1ef9 Latinh.<br \/>\n&#8211; T\u1eadn d\u1ee5ng c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 ph\u00f2ng v\u1ec7 r\u1ee7i ro gi\u00e1 (hedging) tr\u00ean LME v\u00e0 SHFE.<\/p>\n<h3>Ph\u00e2n T\u00edch Th\u1ecb Tr\u01b0\u1eddng Chuy\u00ean S\u00e2u<\/h3>\n<p>h2{color:#23416b!important; border-bottom:2px solid #eee!important; padding-bottom:5px!important; margin-top:25px!important;} p{margin-bottom:1.5em!important; line-height:1.7!important;}<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>B\u00e1o C\u00e1o Th\u1ecb Tr\u01b0\u1eddng Chuy\u00ean S\u00e2u: \u0110\u1ed3ng Tinh Luy\u1ec7n v\u00e0 H\u1ee3p Kim \u0110\u1ed3ng Ch\u01b0a Gia C\u00f4ng<\/p>\n<p>1. T\u1ed5ng Quan v\u00e0 \u0110\u1ed9ng L\u1ef1c C\u00f4ng Ngh\u1ec7<\/p>\n<p>Th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u1ed3ng tinh luy\u1ec7n v\u00e0 h\u1ee3p kim \u0111\u1ed3ng ch\u01b0a gia c\u00f4ng \u0111ang tr\u1ea3i qua giai \u0111o\u1ea1n chuy\u1ec3n \u0111\u1ed5i s\u00e2u s\u1eafc, \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y b\u1edfi c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9t ph\u00e1 c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 trong khai th\u00e1c, luy\u1ec7n kim v\u00e0 t\u00e1i ch\u1ebf. 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